Iowa City Housing Information

Housing & Homeless Needs Assesment: Housing Needs Assessment:
Maxfield Computer Model Analysis

 

I. Development of the 2001-2006 Consolidation Plan (CITY STEPS) II. Housing & Homeless Needs Assesment III. Housing Market Analysis IV. Strategic Plan V. Certifications VI. Appendices
A. General Estimated Housing Needs B. Housing Needs Assesment C. Homeless Needs D. Supportive Housing Needs of Non Homeless Special Needs Populations E. Lead Based Paint Hazards
1. Renters 2. Owners 3. Elderly Persons 4. Persons with HIV/AIDS & their Families 5. Persons with Disabilities
6. Discussion of Cost Burden and Severe Cost Burden 7. Overcrowding 8. Substandard Housing 9. Discussion of Disproportionately Greater Need Based on Race or Ethnicity 10. Maxfield Computer Model Analysis

10. Maxfield Computer Model Analysis

As part of Iowa City’s 1998 housing market analysis Maxfield Research, Inc. created a computer model that will help track housing development and forecast future housing needs. The computer model analyzes housing of all types in both Iowa City and the surrounding urban area (University Heights, Coralville, and North Liberty). This housing model includes senior independent and assisted living, home ownership and rental housing. These categories are also broken down into sub-groups. In the independent senior and rental-housing category the sub-groups are subsidized units, affordable units, and market rate units. The home ownership category is divided into single family and multi-family sub-groups. The number of housing units needed in each of these sub-groups is then projected forward based on population changes for the urban area. In this model the forecasting was done for Iowa City through the year 2010. The Maxfield study estimates that Iowa City should capture roughly seventy percent of the urban area’s housing demand.

To track changes in the housing stock the City will enter the data into the model, as building permits are issued, to see how many units are still needed to meet the demand anticipated by the Maxfield study. This model will help the City identify where housing needs are unmet and enable the City to target resources or modify policies to meet the projected needs.

Map II.1

click to enlarge (114K)

 

Tables II.4 and II.5 show the number and types of housing units it is estimated Iowa City should capture and the current surplus or shortage of housing by income group.

TABLE II.4

Recommended Iowa City Housing Development 1998-2010

 

1998-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

Senior-Specific Housing

     

Independent

     

Subsidized

25

0

35

Affordable

100

40

40

Market Rate

120

40

80

Sub-total Independent

245

80

155

Assisted Living

100

60

70

Total Senior

345

140

225

       

Ownership Housing

     

Single Family

200

400

425

Multifamily

100

450

400

Total Ownership

300

850

825

       

Rental Housing

     

Subsidized

300

200

230

Affordable

145

435

350

Market Rate

70

215

125

Total Rental

515

850

705

       

Grand Total

1,160

1,840

1,755

Source: Maxfield Research, Inc.

 

 

TABLE II.5

Estimated Number of Existing Affordable Units

     
 

 

No. of Households

 

Rental

 

For Sale

 

Total

 

Surplus/Shortfall

Very Low Income Households

(0-30% of Median)

Max. Affordable Rent = $300/mo.

Max. Purchase Price = $30,100

4,789

1,580 1

1,351

1,185 2

0

0

1,351

1,185

-3,438

-395

Low Income Households

(31-50% of Median)

Affordable Rents $300 to $500

Affordable Purchase Price = $50,165

4,166

2,916 1

3,750

2,500

400

400

4,150

2,900

-16

-16

Moderate Income Households

(51-80% of Median)

Affordable Rents $500 to $800

Affordable Purchase Price = $80,265

5,494

5,219 1

7,575

4,075 3

1,600

1,600

9,175

5,675

3,681

456

Modest Income Households

(81-100% of Median)

Affordable Rents $800 to $1,000

Affordable Purchase Price = $100,330

3,050

3,050

773

650 3

2,450

2,450

3,233

3,100

173

50

1 Excludes the estimated number of student households (65% of all very low-income households, and 25% of all low-income households and 5% of all moderate-income households).

2 Excludes the 17 certificate/vouchers currently issued to students with families at the University of Iowa and takes into account the number of subsidized units occupied by students.

3 Takes into account the number of rental units in this price range occupied by students.

Source: Maxfield Research, Inc.

As demonstrated by Table II.5, the Maxfield study anticipates that the private market will address the housing demands for households who earn in excess of 51% median income. As such, this finding indicates that the City should focus the majority of its efforts towards providing housing to households earning below 51% of median income. The Maxfield study shows a significant shortfall of units affordable to households earning under 30% of median income. This is shortfall is apparent even if the student population is factored out.

 

a. Senior Housing

According to Table II.4, there will be a need for 475 senior housing units by the year 2005. Since the Maxfield study was completed in 1998 plans have been approved for 423 senior-specific units that will be added to the City’s housing stock. All of these projects are under construction and will be renting in 2001-2002.

This analysis of the data shows that the projected need for Senior housing estimated for the year 2005 is already 89% completed. The majority of senior housing being constructed has been slated as independent living. Due to some of the anticipated demands the City may encourage the senior housing sector to provide more assisted living and some additional subsidized housing for seniors.

b. Home Ownership

Since the 1998 Maxfield study there have been 117 multi-family owner occupied units and 395 single-family units added, for a total of 512 units. This production places the market at 60.2% of completion for the year 2005 goal of 850 units.

The single-family units shown in the table only include those units classified as starter or move-up. Maxfield defined a starter unit as any unit selling for less than $100,000 and any unit between $100,000 and $205,000 as a move up unit in 1997 dollars (adjusted 3% annually). For the purposes of this document, those homes over $205,000 are categorized as executive and are excluded. According to the Maxfield model (as of November 1999), the remaining demand for move up homes is between 0-98 units and the remaining demand for starter homes is between 98-233 units. By analyzing the housing permit data the emphasis for the City is to encourage development of starter homes.

c. Rental Market

According to Maxfield, by the year 2000 there should be 300 subsidized, 145 affordable and 70 market rate units added to the City’s housing stock. Since 1998 there have been 222 new general occupancy rental units constructed. This production places the market at 26.1% of completion for the year 2005 goal of 850 units.

In addition, the Iowa City Housing Authority has received 200 new Housing Choice Vouchers, which means there are 200 additional households able to afford an apartment. However, none of the 222 new rental units have been subsidized or termed affordable.

d. Overview

Based on this update to the Maxfield study it would appear the housing market and the City has an indication of where production is lagging behind projected housing demands. A brief list of these housing issues is shown below.

The Maxfield computer model allows the City of Iowa City to assess the present situation, track housing developments, project changes in housing demand and identify where housing demands may be unmet. Through use of this model it will enable housing developers and the City to better serve its citizens in need of housing.

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